According to the July 2022 International Coffee Organisation (ICO) Market Report, the composite indicator of coffee prices (I-CIP) decreased by 5.7% between June and July 2022, averaging 190.82 US cents/lb.
The Secretariat considers multiple sources for generating supply and demand balance sheets for non-Members and uses the concept of the marketing year, which is the coffee year commencing on 1 October of each year. Estimates for coffee year production are created for each individual country.
In July 2022, the average price for all indicator groups fell. The ICO reported that certified stocks in New York dropped 32% from the previous month to 0.7 million bags, while certified stocks of Robusta coffee were down 3.3% to 1.7 million bags.
The Arabicas all fell behind the Robustas in July 2022. The Brazilian Naturals saw the greatest loss, with the differential dropping by 9.7% month-on-month to 114.36 US cents/lb. from 126.59 US cents/lb.
Exports
Global green bean exports totalled 10.03 million bags in June 2022, up 0.8% from 9.95 million bags in the same month the previous year.
From October 2021 to June 2022, South America’s total coffee exports fell by 8.5% to 42.26 million bags. According to the report, “Continuing issues with availability of containers and shipping capacity, albeit with reported improvements in recent months, and a smaller crop harvested during its Arabica ‘off-season,’ are the main reasons for the sharp fall.”
Asia and Oceania’s total coffee exports increased by 9.4% to 3.61 million bags in June 2022, and by 17.3% to 34.38 million bags in the first nine months of the coffee year 2021/22. Vietnam performed well as its exports increased by 12.9% to 2.36 million bags, and 20.0% to 22.77 million bags, respectively.”
The total coffee exports from Africa fell by 2.4% to 1.36 million bags in June 2022, from 1.39 million bags in June 2021. Exports from Ethiopia increased 14.5% to 2.75 million bags from 2.4 million bags over the same period. In contrast, Uganda and Tanzania’s exports continued to fall.
Exports of all varieties of coffee from Mexico and Central America fell 16.9% to 1.81 million bags in June 2022 from 2.18 million bags in June 2021. Due to the 33.5% decline in exports from Honduras, the region’s top exporter, Central America experienced a severe decline in June.
In June 2022, the total amount of soluble coffee exported increased by 7.6% to 1.01 million bags, up from 0.94 million bags in June 2021.
Outlook
The latest provisional forecast for total production in the coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at 167.2 million bags, a 2.1% decrease from the previous coffee year’s 170.83 million bags.
Some traders and analysts have recently expressed concern about coffee demand, citing high living costs and the possibility of a global recession. However, the report shows that coffee exports to consuming countries are still strong.
World coffee consumption is expected to increase by 3.3% to 170.3 million 60kg bags in 2021/22 compared to 164.9 million in the coffee year 2020/21. Consumption is expected to outnumber production by 3.1 million bags in 2021/22.
For more information, read the report here.
