A number of studies have revealed the daunting future climate change may have on global coffee production. However, a recent study from Sandy Dall’Erba and Federico Ceballos-Sierra illustrates how climate change will impact varying topographies throughout Colombia.
Their estimates predict an overall increase in the production of coffee within Colombia but when analyzing topographic differences, we see an estimated decrease in production from low elevation municipalities.
As the climate warms, these lower elevation regions are likely to see higher temperatures, drier conditions, increased pressure from pests, among other pressures.
Meanwhile, coffee-growing regions that were once on the periphery at higher elevations may see an increase in productivity as the climate warms.
Using this data, the Colombian government may decide to increase infrastructure at these higher elevation municipalities in order to prepare for the shift in growing regions.
At the same time, breeders, ecologists, and climatologists can work together to find solutions for the foreseeable problems in the lower elevation coffee growing regions.
Breeders can breed pest-resistant/heat resistant varieties of coffee, ecologists can find ways to grow coffee in the changing environment, and climatologists can continue monitoring the impact for crops around the world.
Other initiatives are aimed at improving farming practices that prolong the time a piece of land can be worked, negating the need to ‘move up the mountain’.
Looking into these regional estimates allows us to make predictions and provide policy suggestions. Specific place-tailored strategies should guide how coffee production adapts to future climate conditions in Colombia – Federico Ceballos-Sierra
