cropster flick prediction


Cropster, the company behind a leading independent software for roasters, issued a press release announcing the launch of new features, including Bean Curve Prediction and First Crack Prediction using the companies proprietary A.I. algorithms that have had the opportunity of being refined with more than a years worth of feedback.

The update is another step toward making roasting a predictable and repeatable process, something intrinsic to achieve quality, as there cannot be quality without consistency. The company seems to be on a roll this year, pushing out several new, and genuinely useful features this year. Their press release is below:

Innsbruck, Austria, 23 June 2021

Flick prediction joins Bean Curve prediction and First Crack prediction as the latest feature in Cropster’s AI-based predictive roasting suite. Cropster’s profiler ‘Roasting Intelligence’ now tells roasters if a flick is approaching, so they can take corrective action in time.

This is another huge leap forward based on artificial intelligence (AI) that will make roaster’s lives easier and their roasts more consistent. Roasting Intelligence can now tell roasters where their bean temp is heading, when first crack will happen and if trouble is around the corner! With Roasting Intelligence in place, every commercial roast machine just got a lot smarter!

Why should you be excited about Flick prediction? 

One of the most challenging aspects of roasting is controlling the bean-temperature rate of rise (RoR) just before, and during first crack to avoid the flick. The flick is a quick rise in the RoR at the end of a roast (usually after 16% of development time) and usually follows an RoR crash early in first crack.

The flick can add an undesirable “roasty” flavor to a batch causing the coffee to lose its delicacy. The larger the flick, the greater the effect. There are many factors that play into this phenomenon, so it can be tricky to predict if and when the flick will happen.

By the time you see the flick in the RoR, it’s too late to correct the roast. That’s why Flick prediction is so powerful.

How can roasters use flick prediction? 

It’s simple, if the system detects the possibility of an upcoming flick it displays a message warning the roaster so they can adjust gas and airflow accordingly. If the system then detects the possible flick was averted, it lets roasters know their actions worked. 

Why do you want predictive roasting? 

  • Improved quality and consistency  → happier customers
  • Simpler training of staff when people ‘roast ahead of the curve’
  • Better ROI on green coffee investment
  • Fewer mistakes and undesired roasty flavors
  • Less batches to get to your perfect profile
  • More control over the roasting process and outcomes
  • Less time and cost to dial in new equipment

“The flick may also mislead roasters in their understanding of how development time ratio (DTR) affects coffee flavor. Many roasters have told me that higher DTRs (i.e. 20% – 25%) produce roasty flavors (relative to bean color). But there is, in fact, a modest correlation between DTR and roastiness; every time one of those roasters showed me their ROR curves from the high-DTR roasts, their RORs contained flicks. The flicks, I believe, not the high DTRs, were the causes of the roasted flavors. All of the roasters who were open-minded enough to accept a range of DTRs while learning to smooth their RORs eventually found the roasted notes disappeared and their coffee was sweeter than it had been before.”

Scott Rao – Scott Rao Consulting

Along side this exciting release, Scott Rao, who literally wrote the book on roasting and the Flick, has updated one of his most popular posts on ‘The Flick’ for 2021. You can see it here (link) and learn even more about Flick, it’s impacts and how to avoid it. 

Predictive roasting helps roasters improve the quality of their coffee – it’s that simple. It also helps roasteries by making training easier and reducing errors, saving time and money. You can add predictive roasting to any commercial roast machine. They make your roast machine smarter. That means simpler and less risky roasting for everyone. It’s a game changer. With real AI-based predictive roasting, roasters will be able to be more creative with their roasts with lower risk. We’re excited to taste the results!

We’ve also written up a detailed blog post announcing and explaining the Flick prediction.

Want to learn more about Predictive roasting or Flick prediction? If you’re a Cropster customer you can get all the details in the manual here.

Not yet a Cropster customer? We’d love to show you more. Simply click here and let’s do a demo. We’ll show you what it’s all about and you can ask questions anytime!

About Cropster

Cropster connects people from origin through roasteries and cafes in over 100 countries. Cropster helps people manage farms, roasteries, labs, cafes and their online selling daily. Cropster started in 2007 working with local farmers at origin. Today Cropster delivers tools for use across the supply chain to help people deliver consistently higher quality coffee, it helps them leverage new technologies and artificial intelligence at affordable prices in an increasingly complex market. Roasters, production managers, cuppers, traders, cafe owners, baristas and coffee producers worldwide use Cropster tools to ensure they get the very best from their specialty coffees.

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