On Thursday, Brazil’s 2022/23 coffee harvest was estimated at 58.2 million 60 kg bags, 2.9 million bags less than originally expected. The reason for the lower harvest is poor weather conditions in the main growing areas.
According to Brazilian agricultural consultant Safras & Mercados, this downward trend applies to the Arabica variety, which trades at premiums in some markets and is considered to be of better quality. The harvest of the Robusta variety seems to be in line with forecasts, with a record harvest of 23 million bags.
The Arabica crop was estimated at 38.80 million bags at the beginning of the season, but was revised to 35.20 million bags on Thursday. The lower harvest is mainly due to unfavourable weather conditions in the regions of southern Minas Gerais and Mogiana.
In the Cerrado region, the situation was even worse, as the coffee trees were exposed to lower temperatures than expected, resulting in lower yields. The initial forecast was good as the region received a reasonable amount of rainfall, but still the beans seem to be smaller and less dense. On the other hand, Brazil is in an off-cycle, so a larger harvest is expected next year.
Brazil’s 2022 coffee crop has been very erratic and the subject of a lot of speculation due to “drought, frost, showy blossoming followed by plant abortion, excess moisture during the graining period and less rain afterward.”
Coffee prices have fallen, stopping today at a 3.5-week low and Robusta at a 5-week low. Recently, Climatetempo forecast extensive and regular rains for some Brazilian coffee regions, undercutting prices as the rain was expected to boost tree flowering.
Meanwhile, some have expressed concern as this harvest season seems to be even drier than usual.
Photo by Rodrigo Capote/Bloomberg
