A rich cup of coffee is one of life\u2019s little pleasures, but it will become more difficult and expensive to obtain in the near future. Coffee is among the crops under threat from climate change. An extensive study published in January found that 60% of wild coffee species \u2014 or 75 of 124 plants \u2014 are at risk of extinction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Global\nwarming, deforestation, disease and pests are contributing to the decline, and\nscientists warn that without conservation, monitoring and seed preservation\nmeasures, one of the world\u2019s most popular drinks could become a thing of the\npast. Beyond the environmental implications, coffee is a $70-billion-a-year\nindustry that is supplied mostly by small-scale farms in parts of Africa and\nLatin America. Not only is the supply chain in danger, but so are the\nlivelihoods of the estimated 25 million farmers who sustain themselves by\ngrowing coffee. In addition, countries that rely on coffee as a major sector of\nthe economy could see a significant decrease in their gross domestic product\nnumbers year after year. \u201cMake no mistake,\u201d former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz\ntold Time <\/em>magazine\nlast year, \u201cclimate change is going to play a bigger role in affecting the\nquality and integrity of coffee.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Knowledge@Wharton radio\nshow on Sirius XM invited two experts to discuss what is happening in the\ncoffee industry, how companies are responding and what consumers could be\nfacing down the road. Elizabeth Shapiro-Garza is associate professor of the\npractice of environmental policy and management at Duke University\u2019s Nicholas\nSchool of the Environment. Michael Hoffman is an entomology professor at\nCornell University and executive director of the Cornell Institute for Climate\nSmart Solutions. The following are key points from their conversation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Climate Change Affects Quality and Quantity<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Hoffman and Shapiro-Garza\ndon\u2019t downplay the issues with coffee production or the ripple effects on the\nenvironment and economy. The problems are quite serious, they said, and action\nis needed now to ensure coffee is enjoyed by future generations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt is an incredible\nthreat,\u201d Shapiro-Garza said. \u201cAnd I think that it\u2019s really important that we\u2019re\nstarting to talk about some of the solutions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although the industry is\ndominated by two bean varieties \u2014 high-quality arabica and low-quality robusta\n\u2014 wild species are needed to boost the quality of commercial plants. Those wild\nplants serve as a genetic library, enabling scientists to cross-breed them to\ncreate plants that are more drought or disease resistant, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThere\u2019s a fungal disease\nthat just loves the new warmer conditions and higher humidity, and that\u2019s a\nreal serious pest,\u201d Hoffman said. \u201cThere\u2019s also something called the coffee\nborer, which is spreading worldwide, and that is also a very serious pest and\none that\u2019s really difficult to control. So, there\u2019s a whole suite of challenges\nfacing the small coffee producers worldwide.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Central America, a disease known as stem rust cut coffee production by 15% in 2012-2013, pushing up prices per pound by 33% in the United States, according to Time<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In other coffee growing\nregions, changes in rainfall can affect production. Too much rain can cause\nmold or interfere with harvesting; too little can result in substandard fruit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWhat\u2019s really tough is that climate is\nchanging in different ways across the landscape, and it\u2019s really hard to\npredict how it will change\u201d Shapiro-Garza said. \u201cThese impacts are being felt\nevery place where coffee is grown, but in very different ways and in ways in\nwhich it\u2019s difficult to predict how the climate change will progress. So, it\u2019s\ndifficult to plan for how to adapt if you don\u2019t know what your climate is going\nto be like 10 years from now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Small-scale Growers Are Hit Hardest<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n About 70% of the world\u2019s\ncoffee comes from smallholder farms of two hectares or less, Shapiro-Garza\nsaid. One reason those small farms are so prevalent is that arabica beans need\nhigh elevation to grow, which means farmers are planting in mountainous areas\nwhere large-scale production would be impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThat means that as coffee\nmarkets go down, as production goes down, as we get further impacts on climate\nchange, such as increases in pests and diseases and other hits to their\nproduction, those are the people who are incredibly susceptible to those kinds\nof economic hits,\u201d she said. \u201cIt is affecting overall GDP of these countries,\nbut it\u2019s also affecting some of the most vulnerable people in those\npopulations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Shapiro-Garza has conducted\nresearch on smallholder farms in Latin America and said the solution isn\u2019t as\nsimple as moving to a different plot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cYou don\u2019t have the\nresources to buy new land,\u201d she said. New coffee plants can take up to five\nyears to bear fruit, \u201cso if you think about having to move your crops someplace\nelse, plant new bushes and wait five years to get any production, that\u2019s a huge\nrisk.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hoffman agreed, saying\nsmall-scale farmers have limited capacity. They can\u2019t afford to invest in\nirrigation or make radical changes. Even if they could move \u201cup-slope,\u201d they\ndon\u2019t own that land, and doing so could lead to further deforestation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cAt that local level, on\nthat farm level, the challenges are pretty severe,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Given those challenges, it\nwould seem that large-scale farms would fare better. But the experts pointed\nout that high-quality beans need elevation, which can\u2019t be found in expansive\ntracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Consumers Will Notice the Decline<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n While the research released\nlast month painted a dire picture for the future of coffee, consumers aren\u2019t\nyet feeling the widespread effects of supply chain problems. Java seems as\nabundant as ever, with endless varieties in stock on supermarket shelves and\ncorner cafes popping up all the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the experts said coffee\nlovers eventually will feel the impact. Prices will go up, quality will go\ndown, and premium beans will be harder to find.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe production worldwide\nis such right now that the consumer is not yet feeling that,\u201d Shapiro-Garza\nsaid. \u201cBut as time goes on, it might mean that you go to your favorite coffee\nshop or the grocery store to buy a bag of specialty coffee, and the quality\njust won\u2019t be the same, or you can\u2019t get the same types of coffee that you\u2019re\nused to. The other thing that will be hit over time is actual overall\nproduction, which could lead to price increases as well.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hoffman noted that coffee\nprices have gone up in the short term, but not enough to change consumer\npurchasing behavior. That will change long term, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cAnd some of our choices\nmay just disappear,\u201d he said. \u201cSome of the particular specialty coffees will\njust no longer be on the market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Coffee\nisn\u2019t the only commodity affected by climate change. In his book, Our Changing Menu: What Climate\nChange Means to the Foods We Need and Love<\/em>, Hoffman explains how\nhuman activity is threatening a number of food staples around the globe. Heat,\ncarbon emissions, water quality and other environmental factors are lowering\nthe quantity and nutritional quality of wheat, rice, corn, cacao and other\ncrops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIn one way or another,\neverything on the menu is changing,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What\u2019s Being Done to Save Coffee<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n From small-scale farmers to\nbig producers, those involved in the coffee supply chain are taking steps to\nsave the vital crop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In areas that are heating\nup, some farmers are planting larger trees to shade the smaller coffee plants\nunderneath them, Hoffman said. In Latin America, governments that are dependent\non coffee are investing in research to make more resilient plants,\nShapiro-Garza said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sellers are responding,\ntoo. Starbucks, for example, is working with farmers to help provide seeds,\nmonitor production and develop different strategies. Starbucks said it\u2019s\nsharing the information it collects about adaptive farming techniques with\nother coffee farmers around the globe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt\nmay be hard for people to understand why we are sharing all this information,\u201d\nSchultz told Time<\/em>.\n\u201cIf we don\u2019t, there\u2019s going to be tremendous adverse pressure on the coffee\nindustry.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The experts applaud the\nefforts underway to keep the java flowing, but they remain concerned about the\ncrop\u2019s long-term success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThere are a lot of different initiatives that are moving forward within the industry to support coffee farmers in changing their practices in adapting to climate change, to looking to other areas where they could produce coffee as another strategy,\u201d Shapiro-Garza said. \u201cBut it\u2019s a tough problem for a lot of reasons.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n This article first appeared on www.knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu<\/em> A rich cup of coffee is one of life\u2019s little pleasures, but it will become more difficult and expensive to obtain in the near future. Coffee is among the crops under threat from climate change. An extensive study published in January found that 60% of wild coffee species \u2014 or 75 of 124 plants \u2014 are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2380,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_gspb_post_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bartalks.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2379"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bartalks.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bartalks.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bartalks.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bartalks.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2379"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bartalks.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2379\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bartalks.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2380"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bartalks.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2379"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bartalks.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2379"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bartalks.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2379"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"