The Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA) held its first online forum — ‘Will cocoa demand grind to a halt?’ on the 16th October 2020 immediately after the 3rd Quarter Cocoa grinding results for the region were released.
The webinar is available for free and its worth watching as the quality of the panel and their insights are thought-provoking, and there is much more in the discussion than we can write about here. Register for the webinar on demand on the CAA website.
The association and associated supply chains and suppliers conducted the webinar to review the 3Q grinding data. The panel of industry experts delivered an assessment of the Asia region data despite the impact of Covid-19 which saw a 10% drop against the same period in 2019.
The panel who contributed:
- Andrew Rawlings, Associate Analyst – Agri Commodities, RaboResearch
- Francesca Kleemens, Managing Director from Cargill Cocoa & Chocolate Asia Pacific
- Quek Ngee Chuan, Vice President for the Cocoa Division at Olam International Ltd
- Antoine Delsart, Managing Director of Touton Far East Pte Ltd
- Gerald Abwerzger; and Chief Executive Officer, Von Alm Pte Ltd
Andrew Rawlings kicked off the presentation with a number of slides showing the supply and demand over the last 6 years. In summary, while supply was relatively unaffected, recovery over the next 12 months is expected to be below average as ‘out of home’ consumption is limited.
This will result in a continued surplus of cocoa, which will give the Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire some pause for thought over their newly introduced pricing.
Figures showed that Q2 results were down by 2.2% in comparison to the first quarter, but the situation had improved with Q3 results flat compared with Q2, which was considered a positive outcome considering the interruption to supply chains caused by the COVID pandemic.
The panel believed the measures taken across the Asian cocoa value chain to respond to pandemic were sufficient, and praised the manufacturing sector for innovation in product types and worked around consumer concerns in regard to healthier snacks, affordability, and sustainability.
The panel also highlighted that Asia’s young and increasingly growing middle-class population presented significant growth opportunities for the future.
Current Asia demand per capita for cocoa and chocolate products demand in the region for chocolate and cocoa products remains low compared to Europe and the US, but with manufacturers developing bespoke and affordable products, there’s optimism for a strong recovery.
We wrote in an earlier post about the ‘lipstic effect‘ of a market downturn on consumer buying habits, and while useful to see the overall market figures, we are trying to get some clarity on how the speciality chocolate companies and small chocolatiers are faring.
The panel raised the concern for smaller businesses struggling, while big food companies could grow as a result.
The panel again felt confident about the future of the Asia region cocoa value chain, which mostly imports their beans from West Africa, it was tempered with nearer term supply caution around the unsettled global environment.
These concerns included US election, Brexit and Covid. Looking towards regional supply, mainly from Indonesia which has now stabilised after several years of contraction, the panel emphasised the importance of raising both the quality and sustainability in the coming years.
Something to note was also the increase of imports of beans from Latin America. Countries like Ecuador, Peru and Colombia are working to improve their cocoa production levels, and argue their products high quality can set them apart.
A depreciating currency in Latin American countries also means that cocoa from those regions will look cheap compared to West African countries. In fact Andrew Rawlins says their predictions point to the America’s overtaking Ghana in production – although Rawlins did refer to a disclaimer from his company, Rabobank to communicate these are opinions only and not research that should be relied upon.
