The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) has updated its estimates for global Cocoa production, grindings and stocks for the Cocoa years 2020/21 and 2021/22.
The Cocoa balance sheet for the year 2021/22 has been revised several times. The supply side estimate decreased by 67,000 tonnes to 4.823 million tonnes, about 1% below the previous bulletin’s estimate of 4.890 million tonnes. Yields have declined in most major producing countries due to less favourable weather conditions and diseases, and these declines were responsible for the new estimates.
Grinding was revised upwards by about 10,000 tonnes to 5.081 million tonnes from 5.071 million tonnes in the last bulletin, reflecting an increase in demand for beans, as shown by trade in Cocoa products. Despite challenges in the global macroeconomy, Cocoa demand remained stable in 2021/22, increasing from an expected 4.98 million tonnes in 2020/21 to 5.08 million tonnes in 2021/22, a 2% increase over the previous year.
The latest data, compiled by the Secretariat in early November 2022, can be found in Issue No. 4 – Volume XLVIII – Cocoa Year 2021/22 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics.
In August, ICCO’s forecasted global deficit, which was previously set at 174,000 tonnes, rose to an estimated 230,000 tonnes. The primary cause of this deficit increase was attributed to Ghana’s steep decline in production, which dropped from a previous forecast of 800,000 tonnes down to 689,000 tonnes.