COFFEE PRICES PEAK AS SUPPLY DECLINES AND ECONOMIES REBOUND

The ICO have released their market report for April confirming that the last six months have seen steady prices increases due to a combination of factors.

The numbers below are for 60kg bags.

  • Global exports of 11.9m bags in March. +2.4% vs same period 2020.
  • Shipments in H1 2020/21 were 65m bags. +3.5% vs same period 2019/20
  • Cumulative exports from April 2020 to March 2021 estimated at 129.5m bags. -1% YoY
  • Global coffee consumption in 2020/21 is estimated to be 166.3m bags +1.3%
  • Production estimates have been marked down due to Brazils poor Arabica crop
source – bartalks.net

The ICO composite indicator rose 1.4% higher in March as a result of these latest numbers which have been moving steadily in an upward direction since October 2020, and we can see clearly that the market is being driven by underpinning economic fundamentals, which means it is unlikely to make a sudden reversal.

The story for Robusta is also positive for sellers with an increase of 0.8% in April 2021, to 74.47 US cents per pound recorded.

Total Coffee Production for 2020/21 is expected to rise by 0.5% to 169.63m bags, comprising a rise from Arabica production of 2.6% and a decrease in Robusta by 2.4%.

At the same time coffee consumption is forecast to increase to 166.34m bags for the 2020/21 period, an increase of 1.3% YoY as parts of the the world emerged from the worst of the pandemic.

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