Coffee

COFFEE PRICES FALL WHILE VOLATILITY SUBSIDES-ICO REPORT

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO) latest report, all Arabica groups trended downward in May 2020. The Robusta group indicator rose by 0.9% to 64.53 US cents/lb.

In May 2020, the ICO composite indicator averaged 104.45 US cents/lb, 4.1% lower than in April, and the second continuous month of decrease. The everyday price of the ICO composite indicator reached a high of 107.29 US cents/lb on 11 May and then declined over the next two weeks, reaching a low of 98.68 US cents/lb on 29 May.

Expectations of a more massive output from Brazil’s 2020-2021 crop, the harvesting of which is underway, and the ongoing bearish expectations for demand put downward pressure on May’s prices.

While all Arabica groups trended downward in May 2020, the Robusta group indicator rose by 0.9 percent to 64.53 US cents per pound.

The ICO composite indicator’s volatility decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 7.7 percent over the past month. In April 2020, world exports reached 10.82 million bags, 3.1 percent lower than the 11.17 million bags exported in April 2019.

Global shipments in the first seven months of coffee year 2019/2020 fell by 3.8 percent to 72.78 million bags. Exports from Africa increased by 7 percent to 7.66 million, and from Asia and Oceania rose by 0.6 percent to 23.62 million bags in October 2019 to April 2020. Also, exports from Central America & Mexico declined by 4.9% to 8.77 million bags.

World coffee consumption in 2019/2020 is estimated at 166.06 million bags, 0.5% higher than in 2018-19. Although several countries have started to reopen non-essential activities slowly, out-of-home coffee consumption is expected to remain weak. Additionally, unemployment could lower demand, particularly for non-habitual consumers. Production in 2019-20 is estimated at 167.91 million bags, which could exceed consumption by 1.85 to 3.42 million bags, depending on the impact of COVID-19.

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